My Predictions for the 2025 MLB Season

I'm going to try it again. Let's see if I can do better in the postseason bracket.

Mar 26, 2025

Last time I was spotted in your inboxes, I was dropping the second part of my look at the 2025 Detroit Tigers season preview. Click below if you missed it.

2025 Detroit Tigers Season Preview Part II

Chris Grenda

Mar 22

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Today I will try to recreate the magic I harnessed last year with my team by team outlooks and predictions. I will attempt to gaze even deeper into my crystal ball, peering into the mists of time and predict the end of the season standings for the American and National Leagues. I will also try to improve upon my postseason predictions and championship picks. Please do not take any of this to the bank or even more importantly, to FanDuel or any other betting site. This is a REALLY long post, so your email might not handle the whole thing. Just click on the title at the top of the page to read the entire post.

American League

American League Central

Detroit Tigers

In my last two post I spent quite a lot of time explaining everything the Tigers have and haven’t done to make themselves better. Then just after I published Part II, the Tigers announce that Parker Meadows will miss at least another month because of his nerve injury. Right after that they sign Manuel Margot to a one year deal, throwing my roster predictions into total chaos. To make room for Margot the Tigers put Meadows on the 60-day IL. Now the earliest he will be able to play in a Tigers game is May 23, and that doesn’t take into account a rehab stint. It was also announced that Wenceel Perez will miss a month with a back injury. If these injuries cause the Tigers fall back into their usual middle of the pack spot, I will view it as a disaster, and by extension, a comment on upper management (i.e owner Christopher Ilitch President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris and General Manager Jeff Greenberg). I know that injuries are a fact of life in sports, but these guys are paid to figure out a way around those problems and if injuries to three players sink this team it is their fault. If the Vierling and Meadows injuries don’t keep them out of the lineup too long (I guess there is more of the season after May than before it), and if everyone else is healthy, and they have the season I think they should. The Tigers can challenge for the division title. The pitching will be formidable with Jackson Jobe joining a rotation already featuring Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty and the underrated Reese Olson. I think they will win the division with a record of 88-74.

Kansas City Royals

In 2024 the Royals were second in the Central at 86-76, making the playoffs, and winning the Wild Card round before losing to the Yankees. During the offseason the Royals lost infielder Paul DeJong, outfielders Adam Frazier, Tommy Pham and DH Yuli Gurriel to free agency. They traded starting pitcher Brady Singer to the Reds for Jonathan India and a prospect, and signed relief pitcher Carlos Estevez. The Royals had an effective offseason, addressing two of their biggest needs: leadoff hitter and closer. India will provide much-needed traffic for the middle of the lineup (Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino). They signed Carlos Estevez to close, which allows them to put Lucas Erceg back in the high-leverage set-up role that fits him best. On the mound they’re stacked with Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Michael Lorenzen. I think they did just fine this offseason. They will finish second in the division but will win the crown if the Tigers fall apart, or can’t overcome a slow start. They might sneak into a Wild Card spot even if the Tigers win the division. I see them finishing second in the Central and being a wild card team with a 86-76 record.

Cleveland Indians (Yes, I’m still refusing to call them that other name)

Last season the Indians won the division with a 92-69 record, but lost to the Yankees in the ALCS. The Indians still have Jose Ramirez pounding the ball from the third base position, and Tanner Bibee at the head of their rotation. However, they let pitcher Matthew Boyd go to free agency and traded first baseman Josh Naylor away. Shane (not Justin) Bieber is recovering for Tommy John and will be out until midseason. They added Carlos Santana and pitcher Slade Ceccone (the other half of the Naylor trade), but that was it. Ceccone could complete for the final spot in the rotation and Santana will fill the role Naylor had last year, but otherwise they didn’t make major improvements to their lineup. Yes, they did win the division, but the Tigers and Royals will be better this season, and standing pat just won’t get it done in the Central anymore. They still have an impressive bullpen, but it is of little use with a diminished offense and a rotation reliant on Shane Bieber’s smooth return from Tommy John. They should finish third, with a record of 78-84.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins missed the playoffs after collapsing the final month of the season in 2024, finishing with a record of 82-80. They lost four players that were key to their record, pre-collapse; Kyle Farmer, Carlos Santana, Manuel Margot and Max Kepler. They only added Ty France and Harrison Bader. France is very good but Bader has been trending down the last few season. That means they’re counting on essentially the same group of 20-something core players who were injured and ineffective for much of the second half. It’s also largely the same group that won the division title in 2023. Pitching depth should be a strength, much like in 2023, and several of the Twins’ top prospects are knocking on the door to the majors. However, I would say they did not get any better with their strategy of addition by subtraction. Their pitching staff is a deep and talented group, with some gifted youngsters waiting in the wings, but you win games by scoring runs as well as preventing them. The Twins forgot the first part of that, and will not even sniff the playoffs this season. I think they will be fourth with a record of 73-89.

Chicago White Sox

The Sox are now the holders of the worst record in modern Major League Baseball history by going 41-121 in 2024, so there is nowhere to go but up right? Well, they actually cut payroll in the offseason by letting pitchers Mike Clevinger, Gavin Sheets, first baseman Yoan Moncada, and catcher Max Stassi go to free agency. They also traded their best pitcher Garrett Crochet to the Red Sox for a bunch of prospects. They didn’t really add any MLB talent either. Sure, they still have Luis Robert and Andrew Benintendi (at least until good trade offers come along). The Sox are now in full rebuild mode and as a fan of a team that might still be in the midst of a rebuild, I feel for them. I don’t see them being all that much better than they were last year. They won’t set another record or come close to it but they will still finish fifth in the Central (as well as having the worst record in the MLB again), with a record of 52-110.

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

The O’s were 91-71 last year, second in the East and making the playoffs as a wildcard team. The were swept by the Royals in the Wild Card Round. They lost Corbin Burns, James McCann and Anthony Santander to free agency. They replaced Santander with Tyler O'Neill which gives them a vastly improved outfield defense, and nearly the same offensive output. The question is whether O'Neill can stay healthy, he has only played 100 games a season twice in his career. They replaced backup catcher McCann with Gary Sanchez but Adley Rutschman will get most of the playing time anyway. All-Star shortstop Gunner Henderson might start the season on the Injured List with a mild right intercostal strain, if he does, either Jordan Westburg or Jackson Holliday would likely slide over to shortstop, with Ramon Urias then getting the start at second or third depending on which players moves to short. Right-handed starting pitcher Grayson Rodriguez will be out until May with soreness in his right triceps. Righty Albert Suarez should make the team, but he could still be heading for the bullpen because of the strong spring performance by Cade Povich, who would give the O's a lefty in their rotation. Baltimore also has ageless righty Charlie Morton, playing for his sixth team in his 17 year career. As long as Henderson isn’t out too long, I think they will win the division and finish with a 95-67 record.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox finished third last year with a record of 81-81. The lost starters James Paxton and Nick Pivetta, along with closer Kenley Jansen to free agency. They traded prospects to the White Sox for starting pitcher Garrett Crochet, and signed third baseman Alex Bregman, righty starter Walker Buehler and closer Aroldis Chapman. The best-case scenario for the Red Sox is as good as it’s been in many years. They finally have an ace in Crochet, their lineup has been balanced by Bregman’s arrival and shortstop Trevor Story’s return. Plus they have starter Tanner Houck and left fielder Jarren Duran coming off breakout seasons. Keep those guys, Rafael Devers and Triston Casas healthy and productive, and keep Devers locked in as a DH, and the Red Sox could be legitimate contenders. They will be relying on Crochet, Buehler and Houck to keep them in the race with the Orioles until Lucas Giolito (hamstring, early April), and Brayan Bello (shoulder inflammation, mid-April) return from injury. There are durability and repeatability concerns throughout the lineup, but it doesn’t take too much wishful thinking to imagine the Red Sox atop the division. They will finish second in the East and be a wild card team, with a 90-72 record.

The Team That Shall Not Be Named (AKA New York Yankees)

The Yankees made it all the way to the World Series last year but came up short against the Dodgers, finishing with a record of 94-68. Losing Juan Soto to their New York rivals hurts, but the Yankees also lost Alex Verdugo, Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo, Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle. They still have two-time MVP Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm Jr. and added Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, Max Fried, and Carlos Carrasco. However, the Bombers are already decimated by injuries, with Giancarlo Stanton starting the season on the IL, (he may be back by mid-May), reigning AL Rookie of the Year, Luis Gil out until June, and DJ LeMahieu out until late April. Worst of all, their ace pitcher Garrett Cole had Tommy John surgery on March 11, and is done for the season. Pitcher Marcus Stroman was going to be fighting for a roster spot but now will be an integral part of the Yankee rotation along with Fried, Carrasco, Will Warren, and Clarke Schmidt. Devin Williams becomes the latest elite Yankees closer. Sure, they still have Aaron Judge, but are just one more injury away from a trip to the cellar. I think this will be a down year for them, missing the playoffs and finishing with a record of 87-75.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Jay were 74-88 last year, last in the East, they lost relievers Ryan Yarbrough and Jordan Romano but signed outfielder Anthony Santander, former Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, and traded prospects for second baseman Andres Gimenez. Center field will belong to Daulton Varsho once he returns from shoulder surgery in late-April. In the meantime, Joey Loperfido, Myles Straw and Nathan Lukes are the leading candidates to hold down the fort. The veteran pitching staff, along with closer Jeff Hoffman, and pending free agents Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette will team up for potentially the last time to return Toronto to the postseason. The Blue Jays need more things to go right than wrong if they’re going to challenge for a playoff spot. However, in my book the Blue Jays appear to be fairly average overall, meaning things could go either very right or very wrong for them. I think they will trend on the wrong side and they will finish fourth with a record of 81-81.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays were fourth with a 80-82 record last year. In the offseason they lost Tropicana Field to Hurricane Milton when the roof blew off.1 What they didn’t do is lose many significant players in the offseason, just Jose Siri. Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe will led an offense that welcomes Junior Caminero for a full season as well as free agent catcher Danny Jansen, and Jonny DeLuca, who will replace Siri in center field. Free-agent addition, shortstop, Ha-Seong Kim will be out until May after right shoulder surgery. The Rays like to mix-and-match lineups as much as any team in baseball, so Jonathan Aranda, Jose Caballero, Richie Palacios and Curtis Mead are a few other names worth knowing. Any of those guys could end up in an expanded role if they are playing well. Tampa ace Shane McClanahan is back from Tommy John surgery, and will lead a rotation that includes Drew Rasmussen, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz. The Rays don’t have the star power of some other teams in the league, but they’ve won the division with teams like this before, and they could get a mid-season boost when Kim is healthy enough to take over at shortstop but I expect them to fall to fifth in the East with a 80-82 record.

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Texas Rangers

Last year the Rangers were third in the AL West with a 78-84 record. In the offseason they lost relievers Kirby Yates, Jose LeClerc, David Robertson, and Jose Urena, starting pitchers Max Scherzer, and Andrew Heaney, and outfielder Travis Jankowski to free agency. They signed backup catcher Kyle Higashioka, pitchers Patrick Corbin, Shawn Armstrong, Luke Jackson, and Chris Martin, as well as first baseman/DH Joc Pederson. They also traded shortstop Max Acosta and prospects to the Marlins for third baseman Jake Burger and traded first baseman Nathaniel Lowe to the Nationals for pitcher Robert Garcia, (see Tigers that is an active offseason!). The Rangers added more pop to the lineup by trading for Burger and signing Pederson to compliment Kyle Seager and Adolis Garcia. The battle for the center field spot will come down to Leody Taveras and Evan Carter, but both will see time there this season. The rotation is led by Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers were forced to sign Corbin on March 17, because of injuries to Cody Bradford (elbow soreness) and Jon Gray (wrist fracture). It's still unclear if Corbin will be ready for a full workload come Opening Day, opening the door for rookie pitchers and former Vanderbilt teammates Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter to get the final two rotation spots to start the year. I think they will win the West with a record of 89-73.

Seattle Mariners

Last season the Mariners were second in the West with a record of 85-77. The lost third basemen Luis Urias, and Josh Rojas, as well as relief pitcher Austin Voth to free agency and signed free agent first baseman/DH Rowdy Tellez, (shoutout to the big guy, and I mean BIG 6-4 270 lbs, one of my favorite non-Tigers players). The lineup is anchored by center fielder Julio Rodriguez, catcher Cal Raleigh, and Randy Arozarena in left field. In an attempt to get Julio Rodriguez hitting sooner in the year, the Mariners gave him more reps in spring training and it's seemed to paid off with a .239 batting average, and a .630 SLG, with five homers. The rotation is led by Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert, but George Kirby has been shut down with right shoulder inflammation and is likely to open the season on the injured list. This opens a spot for Emerson Hancock, who posted a 4.75 ERA in 12 starts last season. I think they finish the season in second place in the West and be a wild card team with a record of 88-74.

Houston Astros

In 2024, the Astros were 88-73 and first in the West. They were swept by the Tigers in the Wild Card round. During the offseason they lost Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander, Justin Hayward, Kendall Graveman, and Hector Neris to free agency. They traded Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressley to the Cubs for Isaac Paredes and Juan Bello. They only other offseason move in response to all the departures, was to sign first baseman Christian Walker. The other big new from Houston is that long-time second baseman and perennial All-Star Jose Altuve is moving to left field. The idea of moving Altuve to left was first broached when the team was looking to keep Bregman. If he had returned to Houston, it might have forced newly acquired Paredes to shift to second base and Altuve to the outfield, but there are several other factors playing into the decision to move Altuve. For starters, Altuve isn’t the defender he once was as he enters his age-35 season. While he’s clearly known for his offensive production, his defensive production has sharply declined in recent seasons. What’s more, given Houston’s current roster construction, the Astros need all the help they can get in the outfield. Super utility man Mauricio Dubon will replace Altuve at second base. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are an elite 1-2 combination at the top of the rotation, while Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti were workhorses last year, but there’s some depth concerns with newcomer Hayden Wesneski penciled into the fifth spot. As with the Twins, addition through subtraction is not a recipe for success, and with the Mariners and A’s on the rise, I think they’ll fall to third in the West with a record of 85-77.

The A’s (just The A’s right now, maybe Vegas A’s in 2027)

The A's were dismal in 2023, losing 112 games. It was more of the same as they went 37-61 in the first half of 2024. But then they went 32-32 in the second half, where Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler were the AL's best hitting duo this side of the now-defunct Aaron Judge-Juan Soto pairing. In the offseason they lost relievers Ross Stripling, and Scott Alexander, as well as starters Alex Wood, and Kyle Muller to free agency. They signed third basemen Gio Urshela, and Luis Urías, starting pitcher Luis Severino, and reliever Jose LeClerc. They have catcher Shea Langeliers and J.J. Bleday to go along with Rooker and Butler, so they should be able to score bunches of runs, and this season the A's actually have some pitching to go with those bats. Severino, J.P. Sears and Jeffrey Springs are solid starters, while Leclerc is just the setup guy that Mason Miller, (the A’s closer with a 102 MPH slider), needed.

This season they will be known only as The A’s and will playing in Sacramento at Sutter Health Park, the home of the Sacramento River Cats (Giants' Triple-A affiliate), until 2028 when their stadium in Las Vegas is finished. The A's are still a bit too thin to see the playoffs in their future. But a winning record? Sure, they will finish fourth in the West with a 78-84 record.

Los Angeles Angels

Last year the Angels were 63-99 last in the West, their worst season in franchise history. They lost second baseman Brandon Drury, relievers Hunter Strickland, and Patrick Sandoval, outfielder Kevin Pillar to free agency. They traded pitcher Griffin Canning to Braves for outfielder Jorge Soler and signed pitchers Kyle Hendricks, Kenley Jansen, and Yusei Kikuchi, catcher Travis d’Arnaud, shortstop Kevin Newman, and third baseman Yoan Moncada. The Angels should have a little more pop in their lineup with Moncada, Soler, perennial All-Star Mike Trout and catcher Logan O’Hoppe. With Trout moving to right, in a bid to stay healthy, the Angels will put Jo Adell in center. Soler will be the club’s main option at DH but will also see time in both corner outfield spots. The signing of Newman was prompted by the right shoulder surgery for starting shortstop Zach Neto. He will start the season on the Injured List but should return some time in April. Kikuchi becomes the staff ace and Opening Day starter. He will be joined by Jose Soriano, Hendricks, Tyler Anderson, and either Jack Kochanowicz or Reid Detmers. I’d also like to address Anthony Rendon, a player that is even a bigger drain on a team then Javier Baez is. Before the 2020 season the Angels signed him to seven-year $245 million contract. Since that signing he has only played 257 games or an average of 51 games a season. The Angels owe him over $38 million a season for 2025 and 2026 and the Angels have already announced that he will miss the entire season after a hip injury in the offseason. Compared to Rendon, Baez doesn’t seem that bad. With all the issues the Angels are facing 2025 is going to be another bad year. They will finish last in the West with a record of 71-91.

National League

National League East

Atlanta Braves

Last year the Braves finished second in the NL East with a record of 89-73. The made the playoffs as a wild card team but were swept by the Padres. In the offseason they lost outfielders Adam Duvall, and Ramon Laureano, relief pitchers A.J. Minter, Jesse Chavez, John Brebbia, and Luke Jackson, third baseman Gio Urshela, infielders Whit Merrifield, and Cavan Biggio, as well as catcher Travis d’Arnaud to free agency. The Braves traded traded Jorge Soler to the Angels for Griffin Canning, who quickly elected to be a free agent, meaning the trade was just a dump of Soler and his salary. They signed free agent outfielders Bryan De La Cruz, and Jurickson Profar. Profar’s power and plate discipline should adequately fill the leadoff spot until the lineup is bolstered by the return of Ronald Acuna Jr., who could miss approximately six weeks while recovering from left knee surgery. Acuna would join Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna, adding even more pop to an already loaded lineup. Last year’s preseason Cy Young Award favorite Spencer Strider could return in late April to join a rotation that includes the eventual winner Chris Sale, and two of this year’s dark-horse Cy Young candidates Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach. The bar is set high in Atlanta, but I think this team can clear and win the NL East, if things don't go as planned, the Phillies will swoop in and grab it. They will finish with a record of 95-67.

Philadelphia Phillies

In 2024 the Phillies won the East with a record of 95-67 but lost to the Mets in the Divisional round. During the offseason they lost relievers Jeff Hoffman, and Carlos Estevez, starter Spencer Turnbull, and left fielder Austin Hays to free agency. They signed relievers Jordan Romano, and Joe Ross, as well as outfielder Max Kepler and traded prospects for starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo. Once again one of the big questions is who is going to bat leadoff. If Kyle Schwarber isn’t leading off, it’s going to be Trea Turner. Both have done it in the past, so it won't be answered until meaningful games begin. They still have Bryce Harper and my mom's favorite player, Brandon Marsh, (Not! Sorry, Brandon, it's the long scraggly wet hair and beard), J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos to go with Schwarber and Turner, so scoring runs shouldn't be an issue for the Phillies. With a rotation of Zach Wheeler, Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, and Ranger Suarez, they should also be able to prevent runs. The will finish second in the East and be a Wild Card team, unless the Braves stumble. Then they could win the division. They will finish with a record of 93-69.

New York Mets

The Mets finished third in the East last season making the playoffs as a wild card. They beat the Brewers in the Wild Card round and the Phillies in the Divisional round before losing to the Dodgers four games to two in the NL Championship round. They lost outfielders Harrison Bader, and J.D. Martinez, infielder Jose Iglesias, starting pitchers Jose Quintana, and Luis Severino, relievers Adam Ottavino, and Phil Maton to free agency. The Mets traded a prospect to the Rays for centerfielder Jose Siri and signed starting pitchers Frankie Montas, and Griffin Canning, relievers Clay Holmes, and A.J. Minter, and third baseman Nick Madrigal and made the biggest offseason splash when they signed free agent Juan Soto away from the cross-town rival Yankees.2 Soto is added to a lineup that already has Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, they certainly shouldn’t have any trouble scoring runs. Injuries to second baseman Jeff McNeil and catcher Francisco Alvarez open spots for Brett Baty and Luis Torrens, weakening the bottom half of the lineup. The Mets will also proceed with time shares at designated hitter and in center field, with Starling Marte and Jose Siri. With Sean Manaea (right oblique strain) and Frankie Montas (high-grade lat strain) sidelined to start the season, Canning, Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn are candidates to fill the last two rotation spots. Megill has a Minor League option, which hurts his chances, but the Mets will carry the top two arms from that trio. The question is how good will the pitching be or will the Mets just be able to outscore their problems. I think they will finish third again with a record of 89-73.

Washington Nationals

The Nationals were fourth in the East in 2024 with a record of 71-91. They lost pitchers Jacob Barnes, Patrick Corbin, Tanner Rainey, and Kyle Finnegan, as well as first baseman Joey Gallo to free agency. The Nats traded pitcher Robert Garcia to the Rangers for first baseman Nathaniel Lowe and signed first baseman/DH Josh Bell, outfielder Amed Rosario, pitchers Jorge Lopez, and Lucas Sims, along with shortstop Paul DeJong. The Nationals hit the fewest home runs in the NL last year, but added offensive power this winter with Lowe and Bell to hit in the middle of the lineup behind the young top of the order that features Dylan Crews and James Wood in their first full Major League seasons. The Nationals’ cup runneth over with starting pitcher depth this season. In addition to MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Michael Soroka, Mitchell Parker and Trevor Williams, they also boast DJ Herz and Shinnosuke Ogasawara who are also in the mix for a spot in the rotation, but they both have minor league options left. They will miss the playoffs and finish fourth in the East with a record of 72-90.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins had the third worst record in MLB last season at 62-100. They don't appear to be any better this season. The Marlins did little this offseason to help their major-league team, as the signing of starter Cal Quantrill to a one-year, $3.5 million deal was the only significant addition to the big-league roster. Most of their trades were more about the future as they dealt pitcher Jesus Luzardo to the Phillies for two prospects, infielder Vidal Brujan to the Cubs for two prospects and third baseman Jake Burger to the Texas Rangers for three more prospects. They only made one signing, that of starting pitcher Cal Quantrill. There is only one certainty: Xavier Edwards will lead off, after batting .328 with 31 steals in 70 games last season. On the mound, they’re led by Sandy Alcanta, Max Meyer, and Connor Gillispie. A blister halted right-hander Edward Cabrera’s buildup, this spring, and will force him to miss the first two turns through the rotation. Righties Valente Bellozo and Adam Mazur will battle to fill in that spot for now. The Marlins wanted to improve their farm system, and it shows, but the cost is very little major-league talent. I think they will finish last again with a record of 67-95.

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NL Central

Chicago Cubs

Last year the Cubs finished third in the NL Central, missing the playoffs with a record of 83-79. Over the winter they lost starting pitchers Drew Smiley, and Kyle Hendricks, reliever Jorge Lopez, catcher Christian Bethancourt, first baseman Patrick Wisdom, third baseman Nick Madrigal, and outfielder Mike Tauchman to free agency. They traded third baseman Isaac Paredes, reliever Hayden Wesneski and a prospect to Houston for right fielder Kyle Tucker and reliever Ryan Pressly. They traded center fielder center fielder Cody Bellinger to the New York Yankees for a minor league pitcher, and traded right fielder Alfonsin Rosario to Cleveland for reliever Eli Morgan. They signed starters Matthew Boyd, and Colin Rea, catcher Carson Kelly, and infielders Justin Turner and Jon Berti. Berti started both games of the Tokyo Series at second base while Nico Hoerner continued to rehab from October forearm surgery, but manager Craig Counsell expects Hoerner to be ready to suit up for the home opener. Michael Bush along with veteran Turner will split time at first base, and Miguel Amaya and veteran Carson Kelly (remember him, Tiger fans?), will have a timeshare behind the plate. The rotation is led by Justin Steele, and includes Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd, but with Javier Assad (left oblique) slowed at the start of camp, free-agent addition Colin Rea is the front-runner for the fifth spot. They will dethrone the Brewers and win the Central with a record of 84-78.

Milwaukee Brewers

In 2024 the Brewers won the NL Central with a record of 93-69 but lost to the Mets in the Wild Card round. Over the offseason the lost relievers Hoby Milner, and Joe Ross, shortstop Willy Adames, and starters Frankie Montas, Colin Rea, as well as Wade Miley to free agency. They traded Devin Williams to the Yankees for starting pitcher Nestor Cortes and a prospect. They also signed starting pitchers Jose Quintana and Tyler Alexander. They will have Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, Rhys Hoskins and Christian Yelich at the top of the lineup, and Joey Ortiz will take over at short. Offensively, there are some question marks. Will Yelich stay healthy after back surgery? Can the Brewers withstand the loss of the team’s leading power source Adames, who finished with 32 homers and 112 RBI last season? The starting rotation has questions as well. Quintana won’t be ready for the first turn through the rotation, and that’s just the start of the challenges here. Tobias Myers, Aaron Ashby and DL Hall all went down with spring injuries, and Brandon Woodruff and Robert Gasser need more time to rehab from surgeries. Freddy Peralta, Cortez and Aaron Civale will fill in until they return and swingman Alexander can make spot starts as needed. they seem to be the Midwestern Rays, letting players go and replacing them with younger, cheaper options but still winning games, but I think they will take a step back this season and finish in second with a 79-83 record.

St. Louis Cardinals

Last season the Cards finished second in the Central and missed the playoffs with a record of 83-79. The Cardinals lost reliever Andrew Kittredge, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, infielder Matt Carpenter, and starters Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson to free agency. In what had to be one of the quietest off seasons in the league, the Cards didn’t trade for any players and only signed reliever Phil Maton. The biggest story of the off season was the Nolan Arenado drama. The Cardinals spent the entire off season trying to trade him but were unsuccessful. At this point, it doesn't seem likely Arenado is moved unless one of the six teams he's reportedly cleared his no-trade clause for (Boston, Angels, Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, and Padres) suffers an injury with one of its starting infielders.3 Arenado is still talented, but his contract is just too much for a contending team to take on, even if the prospect haul to acquire him is very minimal. In the event Arenado does gets traded, something that could be a pertinent topic all season, Nolan Gorman would slide over to third and Brendan Donovan would play primarily at second base. A Cardinals team that struggled with runners in scoring position might be tempted to move Nootbaar into center to get more offense in the lineup. Similarly, Pedro Pages is the much better defensive option behind the plate, but the Cardinals are hopeful that Ivan Herrera makes strides in controlling the running game because of his much higher ceiling offensively. Alec Burleson needs to play four to five days a week because of his bat, and he’ll split time at first base and DH. Bounce-back seasons from Jordan Walker and Gorman are big keys for the Cards offensively. The Cards are right-handed heavy in their rotation, with Sonny Grey, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante, and Erick Fedde, so Steven Matz gets the nod over blossoming right-hander Michael McGreevy to open the season. St. Louis also thinks it really found something in Pallante, a reliever-turned-starter who limited foes to three earned runs or fewer in 15 out of 20 starts last season. They are obviously starting a rebuild and will sink even lower in the standings, finishing the year third in the Central with a record of 78-84.

Cincinnati Reds

In 2024 the Red finished fourth in the Central with a record of 77-85. They lost relievers Justin Wilson, Buck Farmer, and Jakob Junis, outfielder Amed Rosario, and catcher Luke Malie to free agency. They traded second baseman Jonathan India and left fielder Joey Wiemer to the Royals for starting pitcher Brady Singer. They traded reliever Fernando Cruz and a prospect to the Yankees for catcher Jose Trevino. They traded a prospect and a draft pick to the Dodgers for third baseman Gavin Lux, and traded a prospect to the Giants for reliever Taylor Rogers. They also signed left fielder Austin Hays. The biggest addition to the Reds this offseason was their new manager, Terry Francona, and his Cooperstown-ready resume. The team added on the margins, but in the end, it’ll come down to the same thing it did in 2024. The continued development of Elly De La Cruz and the health of the young players who weren’t on the field enough last season, including second baseman Matt McLain, and first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand. With the oblique strain injury to catcher and middle-of-the-order hitter Tyler Stephenson, Trevino slots into the bottom of the order. The rotation is led by Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Singer, but with Andrew Abbott and Rhett Lowder starting the season on the IL and Graham Ashcraft potentially headed to the bullpen, Carson Spiers earned the fifth spot with a strong spring. The Red will finish the season in fourth place with a record of 76-86.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates were last in the Central with a record of 76-86 in 2024. During the offseason they lost reliever Aroldis Chapman, catcher Yasmani Grandal, outfielder Bryan De La Cruz, and first baseman Joe Connor to free agency. They traded starting pitcher Luis L. Ortiz, and two minor league pitchers to the Indians for first baseman Spencer Horwitz and signed relief pitchers Tim Mayza, and Caleb Ferguson, starting pitcher Andrew Heaney, second baseman Adam Frazier, and outfielder Tommy Pham. The Pirates have perhaps the game’s best and most talked-about pitcher in NL Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes, but so far, he’s only pitches every five days, leaving four other non-Skenes starts for Pittsburgh to cover. One of those days should go to Jared Jones, whose impressive rookie season was overshadowed by Skenes. Oneil Cruz is now a center fielder, which could free him up to be the offensive juggernaut he has the talent to be. Health is going to be key for the bottom half of the lineup, whether it's Hayes staying on the field or getting first baseman Spencer Horwitz back sooner rather than later. The Pirates may have the best mix of upside and depth in their starting rotation, with Skeins, Jones and Mitch Keller and top 100 prospects Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington waiting in the wings. Unfortunately, they’re not going to be any better than last season and will finish 2025 in fifth place in the Central with a record of 75-87.

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NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers (or Team That Shall Not be Named West)

The Dodgers won the NL West with a record of 98-64. They rolled through the playoffs, beating the Padres, Mets and then the Yankees in the World Series four games to one. In the offseason they lost relievers Daniel Hudson, “Fightin” Joe Kelly (enjoy some Kelly highlights below), and Brent Honeywell, starting pitchers Walker Buehler, and Jack Flaherty, as well as outfielder Kevin Kiermaier to free agency. They signed starting pitchers Roki Sasaki, and Blake Snell, left fielder Michael Conforto, second baseman Hyeseong Kim, and reliever Kirby Yates.

The challengers have come and gone and the result has largely always been the same. The Dodgers have taken the NL West in 11 of the past 12 seasons, with the lone exception coming despite the Dodgers winning 106 games.4 Their path to the postseason is the same: overwhelming the competition with talent and a track record of winning that doesn’t appear to be ending any time soon. Even with a couple of new faces in the mix, this lineup should not look very different from last year's starting nine, led by the Dodgers' three MVPs, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, at the top. In the rotation, Snell and Sasaki are the high-profile additions to this deep group, which will stretch out to a six-man rotation once Ohtani's built up as a starting pitcher. During spring, Dustin May had been in competition with Tony Gonsolin, for the fifth spot, but Gonsolin hurt his back while lifting weights and will start the season on the IL, so the job belongs to May for now. The Dodgers are quickly becoming “The Team That Shall Not Be Named West” for me. I just don’t like that they sign any free agent they want, but I can’t argue with the roster and record. I think they will win the NL West with a record of 100-62.

San Diego Padres

The Padres finished second in the West with a record of 93-69, making the playoffs as a wild card team. They won their first round matchup against the Braves before losing to the Dodgers three games to two. In the offseason the lost catcher Kyle Higashioka, left fielders Jurickson Profar, and David Peralta, starting pitcher Martin Perez, reliever Tanner Scott, third baseman Donovan Solano, and shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. They signed signed first baseman Connor Joe (no I didn’t get it backwards, that’s his name), right fielder Jason Heyward, and starting pitchers Kyle Hart, and Nick Pivetta. The Padres landed Joe and Heyward in early February, planning to platoon them in left field, and they’re looking for one more bat, whether external or internal, to emerge as a DH option. Injuries to Yu Darvish and Matt Waldron have left three starters vying for the final two spots in the San Diego rotation. It's been a tight race all spring among Hart, Randy Vasquez and Stephen Kolek. To pull off an unlikely division title, the Padres will need more of the pitching success that buoyed them in 2024: San Diego required only eight starters to navigate the entire season. Now, with Joe Musgrove out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, newcomer Nick Pivetta will be asked to supply steadiness. On offense, the Padres could use a confluence of factors from a top-heavy lineup. The ideal outcomes include, a solid season from Luis Arraez, unprecedented health for Fernando Tatis, another step forward for Jackson Merrill, and a return to form for Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. I think they will be runners up to the Dodgers and a wild card team. They will finish with a record of 90-72.

Arizona Diamondbacks

In 2024 the Diamondbacks finished third in the West and missed the playoffs with a record of 89-73. During the offseason the lost shortstop Kevin Newman, first baseman Josh Bell, relief pitcher Paul Sewald, third baseman Christian Walker, and outfielder Joc Pederson to free agency. They traded reliever Slade Cecconi to Cleveland for first baseman Josh Naylor and signed starting pitcher Corbin Burns. Manager Torey Lovullo said he is going to be very flexible with his lineups in 2025. That said, look for right fielder Corbin Carroll to hit leadoff against righties with second baseman Ketel Marte hitting second and for them to flip flop against lefties. On the mound, the first four spots in the rotation are locked in with Brandon Pfaadt competing with Jordan Montgomery and Ryne Nelson for the final spot, a battle that could go right down to the wire. While the Diamondbacks scored the most runs in baseball last season, and it wasn’t even close, they still missed the postseason entirely. It doesn’t take a sabermetric genius to understand why - they couldn’t pitch. Now they have Corbin Burnes, who is one of the more reliable pitchers in the game, and they should get better seasons from several others, including Jordan Montgomery. They won’t win the division, but they have enough to make the Dodgers and Padres sweat in September, even if just a tiny bit. They will finish third in the West with a record of 88-74

San Francisco Giants

The Giants finished fourth in the West in 2024, with a record of 80-82. They lost catcher Curt Casali, left fielder Michael Conforto, outfielder Mark Canha, and starting pitcher Blake Snell to free agency. They traded reliever Taylor Rogers to the Reds for a prospect and signed shortstop Willy Adames, and starting pitcher (and Tigers fan favorite), Justin Verlander. Adames should add some much-needed punch after joining the club on a seven-year, $182 million deal, but the Giants are also hoping to get a major boost from the return of Jung Woo Lee, who missed most of his rookie season after suffering a season-ending left shoulder injury last May. After losing Blake Snell to the Dodgers, the Giants will be counting on two other former Cy Young winners: Robbie Ray and Verlander, to stay healthy and provide stability behind the ultra-durable Logan Webb. The Giants play plus defense, and their run prevention should be good enough to keep them in games. That leaves it all up to the hitters, the Giants will need more consistency from the veteran players or better-than-expected seasons from younger hitters who weren’t much of a factor last season. The Giants will finish the season in fourth place in the West with a record of 82-80.

Colorado Rockies

Last year the Rockies were last in the West with the second worst record in baseball, 61-101. At the end of the season, long-time Rockie player Carlie Blackmon retired. They also lost relievers Dakota Hudson, Peter Lambert, right fielder Jake Cave, second baseman Brendan Rodgers, and starting pitcher Cal Quantrill to free agency. They traded left fielder Nolan Jones to Cleveland for center fielder Tyler Freeman and signed second basemen Kyle Farmer, and Thairo Estrada, and reliever Scott Alexander. To correct an offense that has been startlingly poor considering that Coors Field is their home, the Rockies need the top of the lineup to provide patience and speed. Aging Kris Bryant to provide a semblance of what he did in the past with the Cubs, and younger players to continue their growth. Even 400 plate appearances from Kris Bryant would be a vast improvement over the former NL MVP’s seeming disappearance since his arrival in Colorado. A Bryant re-emergence would be welcome alongside shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, center fielder Brenton Doyle and third baseman Ryan McMahon, three position players who made watching the 2024 Rockies tolerable. Veteran starters Kyle Freeland, German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela, all of whom have started postseason games for the Rockies, could rejuvenate the rotation after missing virtually all of the past two seasons. Much is riding on their surgically repaired elbows. If they falter, a group of prospects, led by righty Chase Dollander, (MLB’s 25th best prospect), will usher in the next attempt for the Rockies to build a rotation that can sustain winning. Sorry, Rockies fans, they’re not going to be much better than last season. They will finish fifth in the West with a record of 61-101.

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Playoffs

So the way I have everyone finishing would set up the playoffs this way:

AL Wild Card Series

Tigers vs. Royals - Tigers win

Red Sox vs. Mariners - Red Sox win

AL Division Series

Tigers vs. Rangers - Rangers win

Orioles vs. Red Sox - Orioles win

AL Championship Series

Rangers vs. Orioles - Orioles win

NL Wild Card Series

Cubs vs. Mets - Mets win

Padres vs. Phillies - Padres win

NL Division Series

Dodgers vs. Mets - Dodgers win

Padres vs. Braves - Braves win

NL Championship Series

Braves vs. Dodgers - Dodgers win

World Series

Orioles vs. Dodgers - World Series Champion - Dodgers

There you go, my predictions for the standings, the playoff matchups and the eventual World Series champion. I know picking the Dodgers is not a controversial pick, but it is hard to see them losing to anyone this year. Once again, please remember, that this is just for fun. Do not place bets on this information or take it as gospel! I am not a professional prognosticator, I’m just a guy who loves baseball and has ideas of his own. Remember, this is only the second time I’ve done this and my success last year could have been beginners luck. Please don’t message me at the end of the season and tell me you lost your house on a bet you placed because of my predictions! That said, I hope you have enjoyed this post. Next time I’m going to look at some more interesting people in history.

Chris

The Musings of a Normal Midwestern Guy