2024-25 Detroit Red Wings Season Preview
Will this be the year the Red Wings finally make it back to the playoffs?
Last time I published my 100th post (pats self on back) wrapping up my pipedream of an idea to solve the Arab-Israeli problem. Click the link below, if you would like to read it.
Today, I’m changing things up a little and getting away from the heavy topics I’ve had in my last seven posts. This time I will look at my favorite team in my second favorite sport.
Just to let you know, a lot of the time I refer to the Red Wings, I will say we, or us. I know that I don’t play for them nor do I hold any position with the team or the front office. Nothing I say, has any bearing on what will really happen, no matter how much I want them to do certain things. There is a reason that fan is the shortened version of fanatic!
As most of you know, hockey is my second favorite sport and the Detroit Red Wings are my favorite team in the NHL. Today I will look at last season, their off-season moves, and the likelihood (or lack thereof) of the Wings making the playoffs for the first time since the 2016-17 season. This is the longest playoff drought the Wings have suffered through, since the Dead Wings era were they only made the playoffs twice between 1966 and 1983. Yes, we did have quite a run from 1990 until 2016 where they made the playoffs 24 seasons in a row (minus 2004-05 where a lockout cancelled the season), winning four Stanley Cups in that period.
A Little History
I’m sure by now you know every post you get from me will have a little history to set it up, and this one is no different. I started rooting for the Wings while they were mired in the Dead Wings era. I distinctly remember when I became a fan of the Wings. It was a Saturday night game on November 26, 1983, between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Red Wings. I was 15 years old and the Tigers had missed the playoffs again, so I was looking for something to tide me over until the 1984 Tigers season started (it would be a great one too. The Tigers last World Series Championship). I stumbled on this game on TV and during the game there was a bench clearing brawl. Every Penguin and every Wings player, even the goalies dropped the gloves and fought. There were battles all over the ice and equipment scattered everywhere, like a messy teenager’s room. I'd had never seen anything like that and I thought it was great, I was hooked right there. This was the only video clip of that game I could find. The quality isn’t great, but you’ll get the idea.
Unfortunately, that year the Wings lost in the first round of the playoffs 3 games to 1 to the St. Louis Blues, but that season would mark the beginning of the end of the Dead Wings. I caught the bug and would follow the Red Wings every winter from then on.
Unlike baseball, my Wings fandom ebbs and flows a little. At the beginning of the season, (October), I’m still watching baseball and rather than watching every Wings game, I will check in every once in a while, keeping track of their record and stats. The same thing goes for the end of the season (April to June depending on if they making the playoffs). If the Wings are out of the playoff picture, I will focus on baseball, but if the Wings are close, or in the playoffs than they will occupy my sports attention. From 1993, when I got out of the Marines until 2009 they were really the main focus of my attention. My borderline obsession with the Wings could have something to do with my nearly pathological need to win. Read the post below to explore that facet of my personality.
The 2023-24 season
Last year the Wings missed the playoffs again, but just barely, losing in a tiebreaker when the Philadelphia Flyers lost to the Washington Capitals giving them 91 points tying them with the Wings. The Caps got the playoffs spot because they had more wins in regulation. The Wings finished the season with a record of 41–32–9 for 91 points. This was a eleven point improvement over the 2022-23 season, but in February when they were comfortably in the playoffs. Unfortunately, collapsed in March and April were they went 8-11-3 putting them in the situation for the tiebreaker to kick in.
At the start of the 23-24 season the Wings brought in Alex DeBrincat through a trade, signed free agent forwards Daniel Sprong, JT Compher, and Christian Fischer. They also signed free agent defensemen Justin Holl, Jeff Petry, and Shayne Gostisbehere as well as goalies James Reimer and Alex Lyon. Then in November they wowed the fans by signing perennial All-Star Patrick Kane to a one year deal. Kane was the biggest signing of the year for the Wings, and it surprised the whole NUL. He is the second highest scoring US-born player with 471 goals, 813 assists for 1,284 points. The concern, and the reason he hadn't been signed before the season started, by any team, was he was returning from off-season hip resurfacing surgery and teams including the Wings were unsure how much he would be able to play or contribute during the season. The Wings didn't have anything to lose, so they gave Kane a shot.
The Wings started the season pretty well going 12-7-3 in October and November, slumped a little in December and had a great record in January and February. They entered March with a record of 33-21-6, third place in the Atlantic Division, comfortably in the playoffs. Then we saw the end of the season collapse, and the heartbreak of missing the playoffs on the last day of the season.
Red Wings captain, Dylan Larkin did what he’s supposed to do, score goals, ending the season with 33 goals (a career high), 36 assists for 69 points, while missing twelve games due to an injury. Third year forward Lucas Raymond had a breakout year scoring 31 goal to go with 41 assists for 72 points, JT Compher had a solid first season as a Wing, scoring 19 goals, 29 assists for 48 points. Alex DeBrincat, who the Wings thought would continue to be a NHL goal scorer, turned into a playmaker with 40 assists to go with 27 goals for but had 40 assists for 67 points, a lot of those assists came when he was on a line with his former Chicago Blackhawk teammate Patrick Kane. Kane scored 20 goals and 27 assists in only 50 games after his signing in November. David Perron contributed 47 points, including 17 goals, Andrew Copp had 33 points including 13 goals, Michael Rasmussen ended the season with 33 points including 13 goals and Robby Fabbri contributed with 18 goals for 32 points.
Shayne Gostisbehere led the defensemen with 10 goals and 46 assists, third year player (and former Rookie of the Year) Moritz Seider contributed 9 goals and 33 assists. Hometown boy Jeff Petry, (his dad, Dan was a member of the Detroit Tigers from 1979 to 1987), had three goals and 24 points, Ben Chiarot had five goals and 20 points, defensive specialist Olli Maatta had four goals and 18 points. Justin Holl, who must have gotten on the coach’s bad side, since he was scratched for more than half the games, had five points, all assists on the season.
In addition to the injury to Larkin, the Wings had to completely rework their plan for the goalies because of injuries. The original play was to have Ville Husso and James Reimer man the crease, with Husso getting the bulk of the starts and Alex Lyon getting lots of work with the Griffins. Unfortunately like all plans, it didn't survive first contact with the enemy. On December 18, Ville Husso was hurt and missed seven weeks with a lower body injury, (in the NHL they do not have to say what specific part of the body in injured, just upper or lower).
An upper body injury is anything below the neck and an upper body injury is anything above the ankles.
Old NHL adage
In Husso’s first game back after the injury, he left the game early in the first period with a different lower body injury. After another two months on the injury report Husso was sent to Grand Rapids for a conditioning stint with the Griffins and “suffered a setback” related to his injury. So, the plan had to change. James Reimer who was supposed to get starts when Husso needed a night off was made the starter and Alex Lyon was brought up to the big club. That plan didn't work either because Reimer was horrible for large stretches, he let on a ton of goal he should have saved, and eventually lost the starting job to Lyon. He performed above expectations, especially considering he wasn’t even supposed to be in the NHL. He ended the season with a 21-18-5 record and a goals against average (GAA) of 3.05. James Reimer, who at 36, is in the twilight of his career, had a 11-8-2 record with a 3.11 GAA. In the beginning of the season before the injury bug bit him Ville Husso had a 9-5-2 record with a 3.55 GAA.
2024 off season
Going into the off season the big question on the minds of every Wings fans was what was going to happen with Patrick Kane. He had signed a one-year deal with the Red Wings in November of 2023. A lot of other NHL teams had been reluctant to sign Kane because of his hip surgery, no NHL player had ever some back from that procedure and made significant contributions. The Wings took a gamble on Kane and it paid off for both sides to the tune of 47 points in 50 games. The concern was, since he had proved that he was still able to play at a high level, he would be signed by another team for money the Red Wings couldn’t match. Luckily for the Wings, Kane liked it in Detroit and sign a one-year extension to his contract worth $2.75 million. With that question out of the way, the next one was what kind of impact were the Red Wings going to have in free agency this year?
On July 1st every year the free agency period starts in the NHL. It is a time of high expectations for every team’s fanbase, it was no different in Detroit. However, it didn’t start off with the bang I thought it would. We lost David Perron to Ottawa, Daniel Sprong to Anaheim, Shayne Gostisbehere to the Hurricanes and James Reimer to Buffalo. Our first signing was defenseman William Lagesson, a guy had has played 100 NHL games and only has 11 assists, (see you in Grand Rapids, William). Our second signing was goalie Cam Talbot who has a record of 245-186-42 with a 2.63 GAA. Then the Wings signed 32-year old defenseman Erik Gustafsson. He has 222 points in 455 games, and had 31 points in 76 games while being a +3 with the Rangers last year. Depth forward Sheldon Dries was our next signing.
The Wings then signed goalie, Jack Campbell who has a record of 93-52-18 with a 2.76 GAA in 176 games. The next signings were checking forward Tyler Motte and AHL player Joe Snively. We had to wait for the 3rd day of free agency to get the big splash the fans wanted. On July 3, the Wings signed right winger Vladimir Tarasenko to a two-year contract. Tarasenko has 293 goals, 336 assists for 629 points in 751 games. He has been a four-time All-Star and two-time second team All-Star. Last year between the New York Rangers and Florida Panthers he had 23 goals, 32 assists for 55 points in 66 games and won a Cup with the Panthers, his point total would have put him 4th in scoring on the Red Wings.
The last two move the Wings made in the free agency period was to trade Robby Fabbri and a conditional 2025 4th round draft pick, (that means in the 2025 draft Anaheim will get either Detroit’s or Boston’s 4th round pick, depending on which one is higher), to the Anaheim Ducks for goalie Gage Alexander. They traded defenseman Jake Wallman and a 2024 2nd round draft pick to the San Jose Sharks for “future considerations” (that is when a team agrees that at another point in time, they will complete the deal by sending either a player, a pick, or multiples of either to the first team), and lastly they signed AHL free agent defenseman Tory Dello.
There is one last thing, actually three things left to do for the Wings. They need to decide what to do with their three restricted free agents, Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider and Jonatan Berggren. Raymond and Seider are the future of the Red Wings core and the fact that the Wings still haven’t signed them is starting to be concerning for the fans. Both Raymond and Seider are going to get a huge raise, and both deserve it. Both players are coming off their rookie contracts, with Raymond making $930,000 per year the last three years and Seider making $863,334 per year for the last three seasons. With Raymond 2nd in goals, and 1st in assists and points last year he is due for a big raise, probably somewhere in the eight-year, $64 million range. Seider will also receive that kind of money. The Wings would be stupid if they let either one of these players go to another team, and it would be heartbreaking for the fans, since it would signal that the rebuild the Wings have been on for eight years is nowhere near the end. Berggren is a little different story. He has had two stints with the Red Wings, 67 games in 2022-23 where he had 15 goals and 28 points, and twelve games last season where he had six points, including two goals. Unfortunately, the Wings have not be impressed with his play in the defensive zone and he isn’t eligible to been sent down to Grand Rapids without clearing waivers first. He has a lot of upside on the offensive end but the Wings are putting a a big emphasis on defense and if they are unhappy enough with his defensive commitment, he could end up being traded.
2024 Pre-season
Going into training camp there are still a lot of questions surrounding the Red Wings and what their roster might look like going into the 2024-25 season. What will be the outcome with the Raymond, Seider and Berggren contracts? Out of the four goalies on the roster with significant NHL experience, who will be the go to guys and who will be Grand Rapids guys? What rookies might make the roster this year? What does the signing of Tarasenko mean for scoring and line combinations this season? And of course, the biggest question of all: Is this the year the Red Wings return to the playoffs?
As I said above, the Red Wings would be insane if they let Raymond and Seider sign with other teams. That would mean losing 40 goals, 14% of their season total. Those two players were also responsible for 74 assists, 22% of the team total. They will both be the cornerstones of the franchise moving into the future. Raymond will turn 23 and Seider will turn 24 as the season ends. If they let them go it signals one of two things, either the rebuild isn't close to being over, and the fans are going to suffer through many more losing seasons, kind of like the Tigers and their nine year rebuild. The other thing it could mean is that Yzerman is bowing to some kind of pressure to save money and is sacrificing the future for that. I think that the owner of both the Red Wings and Tigers, Christopher Ilitch, is cheap enough to try something like that. His dad, Mike Ilitch was willing to spend all kinds of money on both teams, to try for championships, but as soon as he died and Christopher took over, both teams tanked and have been pretty bad since, but that is a post for another time.
The Wings still have goalies Ville Husso and Alex Lyon on their roster from last year, then added Cam Talbot and Jack Campbell in the off season. With Husso’s injury concerns, it is unclear which two goalies will be on the roster, come October. It could come down to how healthy the Wings think Husso is. They really thought he was going to be the goalie of the present until Sebastian Cossa (currently in Grand Rapids) and Trey Augustine (currently at Michigan State), are ready for the NHL. Since the Wings kept him on the roster, they must feel confident that he can be healthy this season. On the other hand, I don't see the Wings signing two veteran goalies, one with 176 NHL games (Campbell) and another with 486 NHL games (Talbot), to send them to Grand Rapids or cut them before the season starts. The way I see it, is Husso is sent to Grand Rapids and the Wings go with Talbot, Lyon, and Campbell. Either way, both Husso and Campbell have a lot to prove this season. Husso played in just 19 games last season and spent most of the season on injured reserve. He needs to prove he can stay on the ice for a full season and return to his level of play in 2022-23 season. Campbell, on the other hand, is coming off an unsuccessful run with the Edmonton Oilers which resulted in the Oilers buying out the final three years of his contract. While Husso had been the better goaltender recently, their career stats paint a different picture:
Husso: 132 GP, 69-40-16, 3.01 GAA, .902 SV%
Campbell: 176 GP, 93-52-18, 2.76 GAA, .909 SV%
There is also the fact that Campbell is on a league-minimum contract while Husso is in the final year of a three-year deal with a cap hit of $4.75 million. Both would have to be exposed to waivers before assigning them to the AHL, but there isn’t a single team in the league that could justify taking on Husso’s contract given his injury history recently. Assigning Husso to Grand Rapids would also provide the Red Wings with more cap relief than assigning Campbell. In a season where the Red Wings project to be pretty close to the salary cap, they will probably need all the wiggle room they can get.
I also think that Justin Holl will be waived by the Wings and play in Grand Rapids this season. It is no secret that the three-year contract he signed last year has soured like old milk. He is signed for two more seasons at $3.4 million and the 32-year-old defenseman played less than half of the Red Wings’ games last season despite being brought in to add stability to the right side of the blue line. While he wasn’t awful, he also didn’t do enough to earn the trust of the coaching staff, or a consistent spot in the lineup. He could also serve as a mentor to the younger defensemen on the Griffins. Of course as we have repeatedly seen, I am not a General Manager for any pro sports team, let alone the Red Wings, so they aren't taking my opinion into account.
The only rookie called up at the end of the season that is still on the roster, is defenseman Simon Edvinsson. He was the Red Wings’ first draft pick in 2021. He will turn 22 this season and the Wings have said he will be with the big club this season. However, that doesn’t mean if he plays badly, that he wouldn’t get sent back to Grand Rapids. Steve Yzerman has also said the Albert Johansson is ready for the NHL, (plus he can’t be sent down to the AHL without going on waivers first, so, there you go).
As for other players that could be called up this season I think left winger Carter Mazur will win a place in the opening day lineup, given a good training camp and strong pre-season effort. Center Marco Kasper could be a call up this season, but this year will only be his second in North America, after spending the previous five season playing in the Swedish Hockey League. Defensemen William Wallinder could also spend some time in Detroit this year, joining his AHL teammates Edvinsson and Johansson on the blue line. Of course injuries, as well as performance in training camp and in the pre-season will play a huge role in who sees time with the big club and when.
Roster
A NHL team has to have 23 players, including three goalies, on their roster at any time but can only dress 20 players meaning that three have to be scratched for every game. Here is who I think will make the 23 man roster. In Line Combination below, I listed the players most likely scratched for most games. The players with letters after their names are the captain and alternate captains for the Wings.
Forwards:
Dylan Larkin (C), Andrew Copp (A), Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond, Michael Rasmussen, Tyler Motte, Christian Fischer, Joe Veleno, Carter Mazur, Vladimir Tarasenko, JT Compher, Sheldon Dries.
Defensemen:
Ben Chiarot (A), Moritz Seider, Olli Maatta, Simon Edvinsson, Jeff Petry, Erik Gustafsson, Albert Johansson.
Goaltenders:
Cam Talbot, Jack Campbell, Ville Husso.
Potential Line Combinations
As I have said I’m not Steve Yzerman nor am I in any other decision making role for the Red Wings, but if I were, this is how I would put the lines and defensive pairings together. This also assumes that everyone is healthy coming out of camp, Seider and Raymond are signed and Berggren isn’t and Husso is in Grand Rapids. Sometimes NHL teams will dress ten forwards and seven defenseman if they think they need an extra defenseman but I’m not going to get into those kind of matchups.
1st Line:
Left Wing: Patrick Kane
Center: Dylan Larkin
Right Wing: Alex DeBrincat
2nd Line:
Left Wing: Lucas Raymond
Center: Michael Rasmussen
Right Wing: Vladimir Tarasenko
3rd Line:
Left Wing: Tyler Motte
Center: JT Compher
Right Wing: Christian Fischer
4th Line:
Left Wing: Carter Mazur
Center: Joe Veleno
Right Wing: Andrew Copp
1st Defensive Pair:
Right Defenseman: Moritz Seider
Left Defenseman: Ben Chiarot
2nd Defensive Pair:
Right Defenseman: Erik Gustafsson
Left Defenseman: Simon Edvinsson
3rd Defensive Pair:
Right Defenseman: Olli Maatta
Left Defenseman: Albert Johansson
Goaltenders:
Cam Talbot
Alex Lyon
Scratches:
Sheldon Dries
Jeff Petry
Jack Campbell
2024-25 Season Outlook
So, the biggest question of all for Detroit, going into this season is, will the Red Wings make the playoffs? My answer is I really hope so! There have been a lot of long cold winters here in Michigan since the last time I got to see playoff hockey, and based on their play outside of March and April of last season, I think they could make it to the post-season. How far will they get? Unless everyone has a great playoff, not far, but it is a step in the right direction. If they can play in April, even if it is a four game sweep by whomever they’re playing, it is a sign that the Yzerplan is working and there is light at the end of the tunnel, but there are some obstacles to overcome along the way.
Detroit’s 278 goals last season, a 38-goal increase from the 22-23 season, ranked ninth in the league, but losing David Perron, Robby Fabbri, Daniel Sprong Jake Walman and Shayne Gostisbehere, who scored a combined 75 goals, will be hard to make up. A full season with Patrick Kane will help, as will the addition of Tarasenko, but some people are going to have to step up to make up the difference, (I’m looking at you Debrincat, Mazur, Edvinsson and Johansson). The Red Wings will have work to do to come close to their goal total from last year, because of the players they lost, but they need to figure a way to score more, since weaker scoring teams have difficulty making the playoffs.
In the defensive end of things last season, 13 of the 17 teams that gave up fewer than 252 goals last season made the playoffs, all those teams had a 3.02 goals against average (GAA) or better. The Wings ended the season with a 3.33 GAA and have a good idea of what they can do this season to improve their GAA. Two healthy NHL caliber goalies is a must and the team’s overall defensive coverage has to improve or they will miss the playoffs for a ninth consecutive season. It appeared as if they made some strides in defensive coverage last season, but the numbers say it was negligible. They gave up 275 goals in 2022-23 and 273 last season. To make the playoffs, they must set their sights on reducing their goals against to 250, requiring a restructuring of how the team plays, or more accurately a total team buy-in on the defensive mindset.
The Wings must also be better on the road. Last season every playoff team put up a better road record than Detroit’s mark of 18-19-4. Winning on the road often comes down to goaltending, defensive commitment and the power play. While the powerplay might not be as productive as last year with Gostisbehere gone, it should still be in the top half of NHL teams (they were ninth in the NHL, scoring at a 23.1% clip). Earning more points on the road is a must, for the Wings to make the playoffs.
If the Wings can fix these issues, if everyone can bump up their play a little, and stay off the injured list, the Wings stand a good chance of ending their long playoff absence and making a whole bunch of people around the world really happy. I’m looking forward to seeing some playoff action in Detroit as well as seeing an octopus or two land on the ice, (Detroit fans have been throwing octopi on the ice during Detroit games since 1952, when it only took eight playoff wins to earn the Stanley Cup. You know eight arms + eight wins = a Stanley Cup).
I’m fairly sure if the Wings make the playoffs that it won’t be a long run. The team still has work to do it get to the level of a deep playoff run. They have a lot of players with little or no playoff experience, including their captain, Dylan Larkin, who only has five playoff games under his belt. They do have four players who have won a Stanley Cup and have extensive playoff experience. Patrick Kane has three Cups and 143 playoff games, Tarasenko has 121 playoff games and has won two Cups, Olli Maatta has two Cups and 85 games in the playoffs and JT Compher has one Cup and 70 games of playoff experience. All the goalies on the roster right now have a combined 65 playoff games with Talbot having 36 of them. None of their homegrown players have any NHL playoff experience and that experience is important to make a real run at the Cup. Those are the players that can rally the players when things aren’t going their way in a tight game where it is a win or go home situation.
I hope the Red Wings can turn it around and make the playoffs and get back on the every year playoff appearance track. Of course then the talk will turn to when they can win their next Stanley Cup. They have eleven in their history, third most in the NHL and Wings fans are hungry for number twelve!
I hope you found this post interesting and maybe informative. Once again, I’m not sure what I be bringing you next week but I know I’ll be passionate about it and I’m sure you are looking forward to seeing what it is. Please feel free to share this, or any of my posts, with everyone who might be interested.
Chris